Daily Bull Report August 21 2025: Mixed Market Signals: Strong Growth Amidst Rising Unemployment and Tariffs
Hello everyone, and welcome to your daily dose of market insights! Today, August 21st, 2025, we're seeing a mixed bag of news impacting the market, from surprisingly strong economic data to rising unemployment claims and the ongoing impact of tariffs. Let's dive in!
Macroeconomic Indicators: A Mixed Picture
U.S. selected services revenue grows 2.2% Q/Q in Q2 2025, Census Bureau says
U.S. selected services revenue grows 2.2% Q/Q in Q2 2025, Census Bureau says
The U.S. Census Bureau reported a 2.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in selected services revenue for Q2 2025, reaching $5,967.5B. While this is positive news, it's important to note that utilities revenue saw a significant 13.6% decline. This divergence highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of the overall economic picture. I'm watching closely to see if this trend continues.
U.S. unemployment claims surge to nearly 2 million, the most in almost 4 years
U.S. unemployment claims surge to nearly 2 million, the most in almost 4 years
Initial unemployment claims jumped to 235,000 last week, the highest in nearly four years. While still within the historically healthy range, this increase, coupled with sluggish job growth in recent months, raises some concerns about the labor market's strength. The rising unemployment rate in Washington D.C., attributed to federal layoffs and declining tourism, is another factor I'm carefully tracking. Many economists are linking this increase in unemployment claims to the President's tariff policies.
US business activity picks up in August, with factories leading the way
US business activity picks up in August, with factories leading the way
Positive news on the business activity front! The S&P Global flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index rose to 55.4 in August, its highest level since December. Manufacturing saw particularly strong growth, with new order activity at an 18-month high. However, the report also highlights a three-month high in input prices, directly attributed to the President's tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures might persist.
US home sales rose in July as mortgage rates eased a bit and home prices grew more slowly
US home sales rose in July as mortgage rates eased a bit and home prices grew more slowly
Existing home sales saw a modest 2% increase in July compared to June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units. This uptick is largely attributed to a slight decrease in mortgage rates and slower home price growth. While this indicates some improvement in the housing market, affordability remains a key challenge for many potential buyers.
Corporate News: Walmart & the Tariff Debate
Walmart hikes sales and earnings outlook even as it says tariff costs are rising
Walmart hikes sales and earnings outlook even as it says tariff costs are rising
Walmart reported strong Q2 results, exceeding sales expectations but missing on earnings. Despite rising tariff costs, they raised their full-year outlook. Their CFO noted that they've absorbed some tariff costs while passing others on to consumers, a strategy that I believe will remain under intense scrutiny as consumers and the President have expressed concerns.
Closing Thoughts
Today's news paints a complex picture. While positive economic data points to some strength, rising unemployment claims and persistent inflationary pressures driven by tariffs warrant caution. I'll continue to monitor these developments and keep you updated. Until next time, happy investing!